Fire SuzakuTier 2
at HVN Massachusetts Regionals
decks
1
(2.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-4-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.7%
avg ELO -4.4 per match
expected value
47.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1311
· median 1311
· range 1311–1311
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1190
Q3 1328
1474
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 10.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 10.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Water Fractal | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.4 |
| Wind Allies | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.7 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Fire Kongming | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zander | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Suzaku decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
